MANILA, Philippines — A new OCTA Research “Tugon ng Masa” survey for the first quarter of 2026 showed the tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo leading a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup against Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos.
The Robredo–Tulfo tandem registered 44% voter preference, placing them slightly ahead of the Duterte–Marcos tandem, which obtained 40%. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents remained undecided, highlighting a substantial portion of the electorate that has yet to commit to any political alignment as early preferences begin to form more than two years before the 2028 national elections.
According to OCTA Research, the survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos nationwide. It carries a ±3% margin of error at the 95% confidence level. The polling firm emphasized that the results represent a snapshot of current voter sentiment rather than a forecast of actual election outcomes, especially since no formal candidacies have been declared.
Regional breakdowns revealed significant geographic polarization in voter preference. The Robredo–Tulfo tandem performed strongly in urban and Luzon-based areas, leading in the National Capital Region with 61%, Balance Luzon with 57%, and the Visayas with 48%. However, they posted only 5% support in Mindanao, indicating a sharp regional disparity in political leanings.
Meanwhile, the Duterte–Marcos tandem maintained overwhelming dominance in Mindanao with 86%, while also registering 40% in the Visayas and 23% in both NCR and Balance Luzon. The contrast between the two tandems underscores the continuing influence of regional political strongholds in shaping national electoral dynamics in the Philippines.
OCTA noted that while the results show a relatively close contest nationally, the divided regional performance suggests a deeply fragmented political landscape. Analysts often interpret such early surveys as indicators of name recall, existing political networks, and regional loyalty rather than firm voting decisions, which typically become more defined closer to election periods.
The narrow four-point gap between the two tandems also reflects the highly competitive and shifting nature of Philippine political sentiment, where alliances, public perception, and campaign dynamics can significantly influence outcomes as elections approach.
As early survey figures continue to emerge ahead of 2028, OCTA’s findings contribute to an ongoing discussion on how voter preferences may evolve in the coming years, particularly in a political environment that remains fluid and unpredictable.
Written by Jan Gabrielle Visda
Jan Gabrielle Visda is a dedicated campus journalist and contributor. Their insightful writing sparks meaningful conversations and keeps the community informed.
